Bread, Genes, and Gluten: Inside the Future of Wheat

Pasta, cookies, pretzels, bread, pancakes, rice, muffins, chicken nuggets — this is a partial list of gluten-free items readily available at a grocery store in 2025.

In a survey conducted by CivicScience in 2022, 4% of adults reported they were on fully gluten-free diets for medical reasons, avoiding things like wheat, rye, and barley, while 10% limit their gluten intake. Overall, 6% of the population surveyed followed a gluten-free diet, while 7% limited their gluten intake for non-medical reasons. People who avoid gluten, either partially or fully, for medical reasons or not, made up 27% of responses in the survey.

Research studies suggest celiac disease, which is a genetic autoimmune disorder where ingesting gluten leads to damage in the small intestine and other organ systems, affects 1% of the population worldwide, according to Celiac Disease Foundation. Celiac disease has been reported to be on the rise, but the reason for its increase remains unclear.

“The only known treatment is adherence to a strict gluten-free diet,” according to Celiac Disease Foundation.

Other medical reasons to avoid gluten include non-celiac gluten sensitivity, thyroid disease, eczema, and irritable bowel syndrome.

In its “Gluten-Free Foods in the U.S. 6th Edition” report, Packaged Facts research firm found that the gluten-free market experienced an annual growth rate of 36% over the five-year period ending in 2015, based on the specific categories analyzed for the report, with the market reaching $1.6 billion.

In a report by National Outlook, products marketed as gluten free accounted for 9% of global food and drink launches and 17% in the United States. In packaged food stores, the market penetration rate of gluten-free products increased by 12% from 2020 to 2024, as per Market Growth Reports. Research and Markets predicted that the gluten-free food industry will reach over $14 billion by 2033.

The cultivation of wheat as a domesticated crop dates back to 9,500 BCE, as suggested by archaeological evidence. While agricultural modification practices to improve crop quality and yield, like selective breeding and cross-breeding, dates back thousands of years, biochemists Herbert Boyer and Stanley Cohen developed genetic engineering in 1973 by inserting DNA from one bacteria into another, according to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration. In 1982, the first consumer GMO product developed through engineering, human insulin to treat diabetes, was approved by the FDA.

A GMO is a genetically modified organism, which means that their natural genetics have been modified by genetic engineering techniques. This is done for reasons like improving quality and quantity of the crop, while lessening loss, by focusing on resistance to insect damage, tolerance to herbicides (allowing greater quantities of herbicide to be used without damage to crops) and resistance to plant viruses, according to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration.

Wheat ranks third in the U.S. field crops in planted acreage, production, and gross farm receipts, behind corn and soybeans, according to the USDA Economic Research Service.

“As competition in global wheat markets has grown, farmers’ returns for planting wheat in the United States have declined relative to other crops, which has motivated some farmers to reduce wheat plantings,” according to USDA. “Changes in farm legislation in the mid-1990s that allowed farmers more flexibility when choosing crops to plant also reduced wheat acreage.”

According to the USDA, “no genetically modified wheat is commercially grown in the United States.”
A new GMO wheat, known as HB4 and developed by Bioceres Crop Solution of Argentina, has been reviewed and approved by the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service: “From a plant pest risk perspective, this modified plant may be safely grown and bred in the United States.” Following its regulatory review, there are additional steps that need to be taken to commercialize wheat with the HB4 trait in the U.S., according to U.S. Wheat Associates, including “closed-system field trials.”

Bioceres announced a partnership with Colorado Wheat Research Foundation on Sept. 23 to “develop and commercialize HB4 wheat in the United States.” The wheat production system is “designed to integrate climate resilience and environmentally responsible weed management,” according to Bioceres, “delivering greater productivity for growers and improved supply stability for customers.”

Bioceres and CWRF will work together with “industry participants” to “develop, register, and commercialize new broad-spectrum herbicide formulations tailored for HB4 wheat.”

“The HB4 trait will be available to any interested public or private wheat breeding program in the U.S. through an open licensing model,” according to Bioceres, supporting widespread access while upholding high standards of quality, transparency, and stewardship.”

In a report, “Genetically Engineered Wheat: Risks & Concerns,” Friends of the Earth cite potential human health and environmental risks of HB4.

According to the report, GMO crops are responsible for a “dramatic increase” in the use of herbicides, including glyphosate (the “most widely used”) and glufosinate, with its use “on the rise” in the U.S. Human health research has linked exposure to glufosinate — which has been banned in the EU for use as a pesticide since 2018 — to low birth weight, as well as central nervous system and respiratory toxicity associated with acute poisoning.

“HB4 would allow glufosinate to be sprayed directly onto wheat — a use that would be impossible without genetic engineering since the herbicide would kill the plant,” the report read. “This ‘over-the-top use of herbicides on GMP crops can result in higher levels of herbicide residues on the food we eat.”